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INSIGHTS

MARKET RESEARCH · AUGUST 2026

US Treasury Bond Market Analysis Update

Ten years of comparable auction demand, reported foreign holders and domestic-sector holdings — with a disciplined distinction between market evidence and claims about confidence in the US dollar.

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The evidence does not support a simple “buyers have disappeared” narrative.

In the comparable 10-year Treasury note auction series, annual weighted bid-to-cover stayed in a relatively narrow 2.31–2.55 range from 2016 to 2025. The 2026 year-to-date reading is 2.42, below the 2023 high but above the 2017 and 2019 readings. At the same time, annual public offering amounts grew from US$118bn in 2017 to US$209bn in 2025.

The sharper signal is larger supply clearing at materially higher yields. The weighted high yield on the selected 10-year note auction sample rose from 1.02% in 2021 to 3.89% in 2025. That is important, but it is not a standalone referendum on the dollar: auction yields incorporate the policy-rate path, inflation expectations, term compensation, maturity mix and price-sensitive demand.

Annual 10-year US Treasury note auction demand, issuance and yield analysis

HOLDER COMPOSITION

Composition changed; the reported buyer base did not simply disappear.

Japan’s reported TIC holdings did not follow a steady withdrawal path: they were US$1.09tn at December 2016, peaked at US$1.30tn in 2021 and were US$1.19tn at December 2025. China’s reported holdings declined over the period, while aggregate reported foreign holdings increased. TIC country data are custody/residence measures, not an ultimate-beneficial-owner register.

The latest available TIC Table 5 observation—June 2026—reports US$9.30tn of aggregate foreign Treasury holdings, of which US$3.78tn is identified as foreign official. This is a monthly snapshot, not a substitute for a full ten-year foreign-official ownership series; it is presented as current context and retains the same custody caveat.

Reported foreign US Treasury holder composition including Japan China United Kingdom and total holdingsJune 2026 Treasury TIC snapshot including foreign official holdingsUS domestic sector Treasury holdings including households depositories and mutual funds

Research limits

Auction channels do not identify household, Japanese or other ultimate buyers. TIC country data can reflect offshore custody and holdings move with market value as well as transactions. Federal Reserve household-and-nonprofit data are a residual sector, not a pure consumer-retail reading. For those reasons, this analysis does not claim that any one holder series or auction result proves confidence—or lack of confidence—in the US dollar.

RESEARCH DISCLOSURE

This publication is research and analysis only. It is not personalised financial advice, an investment recommendation or a forecast. Sources: US Treasury Fiscal Data Treasury Securities Auctions Data; US Treasury TIC Table 5; Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1); US Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.